Argentina - Croatia Football prediction

The key stat which I take to consider is last match against Iceland where Argentina hold a ball for around 78% of the time, Messi exchanged 70 times the ball. Against Croatia procentage of ball possession will be much less, maybe aorund 57-60%? which will impact of the number of touches by Messi.

In friendlies Messi got 77 against Russia (66%), 28 vs Ecuador (43%), 56 vs Peru (62%). 

Both Argentina and Croatia have a good defense. Both teams rarely score many goals or lose high. It shuld be tight game like Brazil against Swiss. 

All odds are based on a past, nevertheless to add that this tournament go through own rules, favorites disappointing or just there is no huge gap between higher rated national teams.