Atletico Madrid - Liverpool Football prediction

Finally knock-out stages at Champions League. Very important first match for both teams. It's should be very defensive and hard fought battle. Atletico this season commited 72 fouls (12 per game), while suffered 74 fouls (12,3 per game). Liverpool this season commited 60 (10 per game), while suffered 40 fouls (6 per game). Stats are looking for under fouls this game, but the main reason why i go with over is match referee. For tonight's game man in charge is polish referee S.Marciniak. He had worked in 3 matches this season: Galatasaray-PSG (36 fouls 4YC), Napoli-Salzburg (32 fouls 3YC), Slavia-Inter (35 fouls 3YC). In my opinion, he would keep fouls below his average 34,33 fouls per game, but it would be at least 24 fouls per game. Good Luck.