Golovkin G. - Alvarez S. Boxing prediction

MIDDLEWEIGHT - MEN: WBC/IBF/WBO/WBA Super Titles (World)

Golovkin G. (Kaz) vs Alvarez S. (Mex) 

Moreover, I do not even think that Canelo’s “guarantee” of knocking out GGG is an idle boast either – he has a decent chance of doing this, especially if he can counter on the inside with uppercuts as GGG tries to throw wide punches to the head.  GGG likes to throw haymakers, kind of like Marcos Maidana but in a completely legal way, that land on the side of an opponent’s head and affect their balance like he did in the Rubio fight.  Those kinds of punches offer perfect countering opportunities, and Canelo has tremendous hand speed and combinations.  Moreover, GGG is particularly vulnerable to the uppercut, as his fight with Kell Brook showed.
So, rather than seeing this fight as a toss-up, I have to give the slight advantage to Canelo, regardless of what the boxing public or odds makers think.  If in the fall of 2014, Bob Smith gave Alvarez a 10-15% chance of winning, with all due respect to Mr. Smith, I have to state that the chance of Alvarez winning is now up to 55-65%.  Again, this is due to the tremendous improvements in stamina, defense, counter punching, crispness, and slickness of Canelo, with the corresponding recent lackluster performances of GGG.
I will say this though: even though Canelo is much more likely to win now than he was three years ago; even though a tremendous number of Mexican fans want this; even though if he wins he would be crowned P4P #1; even though Mayweather and his whole boxing gym predict a Canelo victory, typically by KO;  even though he is the younger and bulkier fighter; even though he has better speed and combinations; even though he has better defense; even though he has improved in the past few years while GGG has not; even though I personally believe he will be given the benefit of the doubt by the referees and judges; even though he has a tremendous uppercut; even though he has a cast iron chin and has never been knocked down in his career; even though he has outclassed his opponents tremendously in his last few fights, still in the end, I will go with GGG by knockout.
This will be an “upset KO”.  It will not be supposed to happen.  Canelo will win a substantial number of the rounds and make GGG look foolish with his head and body movement.  He will also frustrate GGG with his clean counters and get him to fight off of the back foot for entire stretches of rounds and rounds at a time.  He will take the ring generalship away from GGG in a way that has never been done before, mark my words.
But in the end, GGG will win.  He will hang in there, despite being outclassed repeatedly; he will fight more cautiously and then use his jab and also go to the body.  His body work will slow Canelo down, and then it will be to the ropes with Canelo – final prediction – 9th round KO for GGG.