Hiroki Moriya - Ivan Gakhov Tennis prediction

This is the tennis match at Challenger in Bangkok, Thailand. The match is between Hiroki Moriya from Japan who is placed 177th at ATP ranking list and Ivan Gakhov from Russia who is placed 390th at ATP ranking list. I choose that Moriya should win this match. Despite losing last 4 matches in a row, he lost them to good opponents, unlike Gakhov who won 2 of last 4, but against very weak opponents, he is also on 4 win and 16 lost matches in last 20. He  is playing good on clay, this is not his best playground. Moriya won 6 from last 12 matches.