Zalgiris Kaunas - Crvena zvezda mts Basketball prediction

Match of first round of this Euroleague season between Zalgiris and Red Star. Regarding bookmakers, Zalgiris is favorite here, so they offer only 30% profit of staked amount if Zalgiris. It can happen that Zalgiris will win here, but i strongly disagree about chances. Red Star has new team, new coach, but still it looks like something they played earlier seasons. In my opinion, they have not better point guard in last years, as Rochestie is one of the players who understand basketball so much, coach on the field, with amazing skills for scoring, or assisting either. Further more, Red Star has enough players who can shoot for three points and at the end, a lot of them can definitly make some offensive and defensive rebounds. Almost 4 of 5 players are going on offensive rebound and i expect lot of second, even third posesions for away team here.
All in all, i will not be surprised if Zalgiris win here, but 5.75 on ht-ft Red Star win is pure value here. 
One in five games like this is enough for some small profit, but finding two or three is skill which brings some serious profit.
Best of luck