Belgien gegen Italien – Prognose & Wetttipps: UEFA Nations League, 15. November 2026

It’s win or bust for Belgium on Sunday night. The Red Devils host Italy in Brussels, and only the top two in Nations League Group 1 reach the quarter-finals. Italy and France both sit on 10 points, one clear of Belgium. Avoiding defeat is enough for the Azzurri, while Belgium must win.

⚽ Belgium vs Italy Prediction: Italy +0.5 Handicap @1.71

Belgium kept their hopes alive on Thursday in Izmir. Arda Guler put Turkey ahead with a superb free kick. Kevin De Bruyne and Charles De Ketelaere then scored before the break to turn the game around.

Goalkeeper Senne Lammens made two big saves late on to protect the 2-1 lead. That win came after last month’s 4-1 loss to France. In that game, Belgium let in four goals in the final 15 minutes.

Mark van Bommel’s side have a painful memory to avoid. They finished third behind France and Italy in the 2024/25 Nations League. Thibaut Courtois is taking a break from national team duty, and Romelu Lukaku is short of fitness.

Italy lost 2-0 at home to Belgium on matchday one. Since then, they have won three of four games. Thursday’s 3-1 win over France at San Siro sent them top of the group.

Francesco Pio Esposito equalised after an early France goal. His brother Sebastiano missed a penalty, but Davide Frattesi made it 2-1. Pio then scored from the spot to seal Italy’s first win over France on home soil since 1962.

Pio Esposito now has nine goals from his first 14 caps. Frattesi has just scored his 10th for his country. Roberto Mancini is missing Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Giacomo Raspadori, Moise Kean and Nicolo Zaniolo.

Italy only need a draw, and that changes everything. Belgien must chase the game, which leaves space for Pio Esposito and Frattesi to strike. The Azzurri have shown they can bounce back after falling behind.

Mancini’s side took four points from two games against France this season. That shows they can handle big matches under pressure. Belgium, meanwhile, have alternated wins and losses throughout the group stage.

Many beste Buchmacherseiten make Belgium favourites at 2.08 to win. Backing Italy with a half-goal head start at 1.71 covers both a win and a draw. With Italy unbeaten in four and full of confidence, this is the smart play.

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