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Kirjoittanut
David Nugent -
1. lokakuuta 20263 min. lukea
Belgium vs Turkey jalkapallo prediction for the third round of Nations League A Group A1 on Friday night at the Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Liège (20:45 CEST). Both sides need points. Belgium sit on three after a win in Italy and a narrow home loss to France, while Turkey are bottom with zero points and a -4 goal difference after two defeats. We have talked this one through and we think the gap between these sides right now is bigger than the old head-to-head suggests.
Sisällysluettelo
Fifteen Years Since These Two Last Met
- 28 Apr 2004, Friendly: Belgium 3-2 Turkey
- 24 May 2006, Friendly: Belgium 3-3 Turkey
- 10 Sep 2008, WC qualifier: Belgium 1-1 Turkey
- 10 Oct 2009, WC qualifier: Belgium 2-0 Turkey
- 7 Sep 2010, Euro qualifier: Belgium 2-3 Turkey
- 3 Jun 2011, Euro qualifier: Belgium 1-1 Turkey
That is 11 meetings in total, with three wins each and five draws. The catch is that the last one was more than 15 years ago, so it tells us very little about Friday.
Belgium Chasing France, Turkey Still Waiting for a Point
France lead on six points. Belgium and Italy have three each, with Italy ahead on goal difference, and Turkey have nothing yet.
Mark van Bommel’s start has been decent. His first squad came with eight changes from the World Cup squad and left out Thibaut Courtois, and the new-look side still won 2-0 in Italy on matchday 1, with Godts and Lukebakio on the scoresheet. Last Monday they lost 1-0 at home to France, beaten by an Olise goal two minutes from time. That is not a bad night against the group favourites.
Turkey have had a much rougher week under Vincenzo Montella. They lost 1-0 at home to France, then were 3-0 down inside half an hour on the way to a 4-1 home defeat to Italy in Bursa, with Barış Alper Yılmaz scoring their only goal. They also travel without two of their best creative players. Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are both out injured.
Is 1.50 on Belgium Worth Taking?
This is our main pick. Belgium are at home, they have already won away at Italy in this group, and they face a Turkey side that has conceded five goals in two games and scored just once.
Losing Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız takes away Turkey’s main source of control and their biggest attacking threat. Without them, it is hard to see where their chances come from away from home against a team that kept Italy out in Italy.
Some of us did wonder if 1.50 is short enough to leave alone. We came down on the other side. Turkey have shown nothing in this campaign to suggest they can hold out, and this is a must-win spot for Belgium if they want to stay in touch with France.
Where Do Turkey’s Goals Come From Without Çalhanoğlu and Yıldız?
If you want a bigger price, this is higher risk with higher reward. Belgium kept a clean sheet in Italy and only conceded late to France, so the defence has looked solid under Van Bommel.
Turkey’s only goal in two Nations League games came in a match they were already losing badly. With their two key creators missing, a 3.00 price on Belgium winning without conceding looks fair to us.
The Short Version for Friday Night
Belgium to win at 1.50 is the bet we are happiest with, and Belgium to win to nil at 3.00 is the one for anyone after a bigger price. Turkey arrive bottom of the group, short of key players and with five goals conceded in two games. Belgium have already shown they can win away at Italy. Friday night feels like the right moment for them to get back to winning ways.
David Nugent
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