Pronostics et conseils de paris pour le match Italie - Belgique (25/09/2026)

• 14 Nov 2024, Nations League: Belgium 0-1 Italy
• 10 Oct 2024, Nations League: Italy 2-2 Belgium
• 10 Oct 2021, Nations League third-place play-off: Italy 2-1 Belgium
• 2 Jul 2021, Euro 2020 quarter-final: Belgium 1-2 Italy
• 13 Jun 2016, Euro 2016 group stage: Belgium 0-2 Italy
• 13 Nov 2015, friendly: Belgium 3-1 Italy

Italy’s year has been rough. They beat Northern Ireland 2-0 in the play-off semi-final in March, then went out to Bosnia and Herzegovina on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the final. Alessandro Bastoni was sent off before half-time and only Sandro Tonali scored in the shootout. Gennaro Gattuso left a few days later.

The summer friendlies did not lift the mood either: a 1-0 win in Luxembourg, then a 1-0 defeat in Greece. Italy have scored more than once in only two of their last six games.

Enter Roberto Mancini, back for a second spell after winning Euro 2020 in his first. He has named a 34-man squad with nine uncapped players and recalls for Nicolò Zaniolo, Nicolò Fagioli and Rolando Mandragora. That is a lot of new faces for a first game against a World Cup football quarter-finalist.

Belgium had a far better summer. They topped Group G with 5 points, beat Senegal 3-2 in the round of 32 and thrashed the USA 4-1 in the last 16. Spain only got past them 2-1 in the quarter-final with a late winner.

That run produced 14 goals in six games. New coach Mark van Bommel has kept Youri Tielemans as captain and brought Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku back into the squad, with Lukaku’s minutes to be managed across the four September and October games. Add Leandro Trossard, Charles De Ketelaere, Loïs Openda and Dodi Lukebakio, and this is a squad with goals all over it.

The market makes Italy favourites, mostly on home advantage and history. Italy are unbeaten in the last five meetings (four wins, one draw), and Belgium have not beaten them since a friendly in 2015. That record is real, but it was built by Italian sides that were far more settled than this one.

Right now Belgium are the stronger team on form. They lost one of their six World Cup games, and that was to Spain. Italy lost two of their last six, including a 4-1 home defeat to Norway in qualifying. Draw no bet gives us our stake back if Italy grind out a draw, and at 2.30 it is a fair price for the better team of the summer.

Belgium’s games have been open. Four of their six World Cup matches went over 2.5 goals, and they scored three or more in three of them. This fixture has also produced goals: four of the last six meetings had three or more, including the 2-2 in Rome in October 2024.

Italy are the reason this is a 5/10 and not higher. They have been hard to watch in attack, and only one of their last six games went over the line. But a Mancini side with nine new faces facing De Bruyne and Lukaku does not look like a recipe for a tight 0-0. We expect both defences to be tested.

History favours Italy, current form favours Belgium. We side with form. Belgium have the better squad, the better summer and the more dangerous attack, while Italy are starting again under Mancini. Our best bet is Belgium draw no bet at 2.30, with over 2.5 goals at 1.80 as the second pick. We lean towards a 2-1 away win.

Italy host Belgium in Rome to open their 2026/27 Nations League campaign, with both teams beginning new eras under Roberto Mancini and Mark van Bommel. Italy have the stronger recent head-to-head record, but Belgium arrive in better form after a productive World Cup run and the return of Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku.

The match also offers plenty of interest for bettors, with Belgium’s attacking form and Italy’s recent inconsistency shaping the main markets. Before placing any wager, players can compare odds, promotions and available markets across les meilleurs bookmakers to find the most suitable option for this Nations League clash.