Bahrains Grand Prix i Malaysia – Prognos och speltips (2026-10-04)

Drivers: Antonelli 302, Russell 236, Hamilton 199, Norris 186, Leclerc 179, Verstappen 163

Constructors: Mercedes 538, Ferrari 378, McLaren 306, Red Bull 263

Last five winners: Norris (Hungary), Norris (Netherlands), Antonelli (Italy), Antonelli (Madrid), Russell (Azerbaijan)

Wins this season: Antonelli 8, Russell 3, Norris 2, Hamilton 1, Leclerc 1

Mercedes have won 11 of the 15 races so far and lead the constructors’ table by 160 points. That’s the starting point for any Sepang bet.

Russell won from pole in Azerbaijan, and it wasn’t easy. Max Verstappen finished just a tenth of a second behind. Isack Hadjar was third, Charles Leclerc fourth, and Antonelli recovered from a qualifying crash to finish fifth. McLaren had a bad day. Lando Norris spun and was then hit by Pierre Gasly, and Oscar Piastri locked up and dropped to 15th.

Antonelli’s lead is down from 81 to 66 points. He’s still comfortably ahead, but Russell has cut into it.

The Sunday forecast has a 75% chance of afternoon rain, with an air temperature of around 33°C and 73% humidity. Track temperatures could get close to 60°C. That matters for the 2026 cars. In extreme heat, teams may have to limit how much electrical power they deploy on the straights, and they have to lock in their cooling setups after qualifying. If they guess wrong, they can’t change it for the race.

One grid note: Franco Colapinto takes a five-place grid drop at Sepang for a penalty he didn’t serve in Baku.

This is our main pick of the weekend. Antonelli has won eight races this season, which is more than every other driver combined. He’s in the fastest car on the grid, and Mercedes have won 11 of 15 races. At 2.50, the price is fair for the championship leader in the best car.

The case against, and we did discuss it, is Baku. Antonelli crashed in qualifying there and was only fifth, and Russell has now won three races. At 4.33, Russell has a real case of his own. What decides it for us is the full season. Antonelli’s win rate over 15 races is too strong to ignore. A clean Saturday should put him at or near the front, and at a track this long, starting well matters.

This one is for a small stake only. Verstappen hasn’t won a race in 2026, and Red Bull are fourth in the constructors’ table, so in dry conditions we’d leave him alone.

Baku changed our view a little. He finished just a tenth of a second behind Russell in a car that isn’t supposed to be quick enough to win. Now add a 75% chance of rain. Wet races reward drivers who can make up for what the car lacks, and Verstappen’s record in those conditions is the reason we’re in at 8.50. If the heat also stops Mercedes from using the power advantage they’ve had all year, the gap closes again. It’s a long shot. The staking reflects that.

Our main bet is Antonelli to win at 2.50. He leads the championship, has won more races than anyone, and drives for the team that has won most of this season. Alongside that, we like a small stake on Verstappen at 8.50 in case the rain arrives and makes the race unpredictable. Keep most of the stake on Antonelli, and use the Verstappen bet to cover a wet race.