2025 年价值投注实例
价值投注是指博彩公司开出的赔率高于实际概率的投注。这些投注一般被理解为经常赢少输多的投注,但从长远来看,会有更高的赔率来补偿。价值投注是将您的投注从随机投注转变为长期成功投注的唯一方面。这也是您开始投注或想在投注中获胜时必须了解的首要和主要概念之一。请继续了解什么是预期价值、如何计算和发现价值、什么运动最适合价值投注以及价值投注示例。
目录
什么是体育价值投注
一般来说,任何价值投注都是(概率 %)X(十进制赔率) > 100 结果越大,特定投注的价值也越大。45% 赢取赔率为 2.50 的概率投注显示了很好的价值,尽管我们只有不到一半的机会赢取这种投注。45% x 2.50 = 112.5,这意味着从长远来看,您有望从此类投注中获利 12.5%。经过自己的计算,任何高于 5% 的值都可以被视为可行的超值投注,因为我们必须留出几个百分比作为误差幅度。
我们必须明白,价值可以体现在各种赔率上,甚至是很小的赔率。但一般来说,价值投注会让你下注更大的赔率,因为你知道你会输掉更多的赌注,赢得更少,但最终你会获利。我们还应该明白,每个庄家的意图都是设置所有的赔率线,使其没有任何价值。我们必须仔细计算,考虑多种因素,否则,价值投注就会变成简单的猜谜游戏。
在价值投注中,最重要的一点就是要知道如何调整自己的资金管理,并做好经常输钱的心理准备。这有时并不好玩,但如果你希望成为一个赢家,你所追求的就不仅仅是乐趣和游戏了。
价值投注实例
在我们虚构的价值投注案例中,曼城对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛将在 英超联赛.根据博彩公司的预测,曼城显然是最大热门,他们的获胜赔率仅为 1.50。
在我们的价值投注案例中,我们知道曼城队已经稳居联赛榜首,很可能会以第二甚至第三名的身份出战。博彩公司也意识到了这一点,但该系数也反映了公众对曼城队的投注,主要是基于他们的名字、过往战绩、积分榜排名和其他标准,而我们认为这些对他们在球场上的实际表现没有任何好处。
另一边是阿斯顿维拉。这支球队急需胜利来 留在英超联赛 并将利用他们所拥有的一切资源。阿斯顿维拉的主场非常适合他们的球员。而且天气条件也对他们有利。这些都是我们选择阿斯顿维拉的简单理由,因为我们认为赔率对强队过于有利。赔率是基于他们的过往战绩、积分榜排名以及其他在本场比赛中并不重要的原因。
请注意,真实比赛前的分析将包括更多的外部和内部因素。每个投注者或推荐人都会从不同的角度来分析哪些因素是重要的,哪些是博彩公司在设定赔率时可能忽略的。
有价值的投注
现在我们已经完成了我们的短期价值投注实例分析,我们的主要投注将是阿斯顿维拉+0.5 @2.5。根据我们的分析计算,他们至少有 45% 的获胜或平局机会。我们已经做足了功课。我们计算的百分比将是我们长期成功的关键。在价值投注方面,这是我们与博彩公司相比的唯一真正优势。
我们还将开出阿斯顿维拉获胜的赔率 @6.00。假设根据我们的计算,他们有 20% 的机会赢得比赛。从长远来看,这足以让我们获得约 20% 的利润。
我们投注阿斯顿维拉+0,5 @2.5,阿斯顿维拉赢 @6.00 - 不是 "知道 "他们肯定会赢还是会和,但 了解他们获胜或平局的概率比赔率显示的要高 我们
常见问题
How does a value bet work?
Any value bet is a simple formula: probability % X odds > 100. As this result gets bigger, so does the value of the particular bet. You can never tell the outcome of any fair sport event for sure, but you can predict the outcome percentage. This is where we can find value.
What is value betting in sports betting?
Value betting are bets made with higher odds than the actual probability %. The idea of value bets is pretty simple and comes from the concept of Expected Value.
Value bets are generally understood as bets with higher odds. In reality, value can be found in various odds, sometimes even very low ones.
How to find value bets?
This is the homewok for any bettor to be successful with value betting and betting overall. Some bettors are best at spotting value in early bookmaker lines, so check them early. Follow the news about teams, players, weather etc. and learn then to react and when not to overreact. Always check the moving betting lines and why that is happening. Carefully examine value betting examples to find more in the future.
Can I make money from value betting?
The real question is whether you could make money from betting without value betting. The main thing you should look for when it comes to betting, is value. You will never tell any winner for sure, even 1.01 odds will lose. Do not try to learn this the hard way. You absolutely have to understand what value betting is to make any money.
How do you win a value bet?
You win value bets by making a proper analysis and understanding what and why you are betting. It is also a must to understand that even the best bets might lose and the worst ones may win. With value betting our main goal is not to have a winning bet or winning day. Our goal is to have a winning week, winning month and winning year. This is the only real win.
What is a value bet in football?
As in any other sport, value bet in football can be found with a simple formula: probability% X odds > 100. Note that it is pretty hard (but not impossible) to find value on favourites when betting football. Pay additional attention to odds for draw, as betting on football draw is probably the outcome you can find value most consistently in.
What sport is the best for value betting?
The best sport to find value is the one you know the best. Basketball is the most consistant sport to bet, meanwhile baseball is proven to be the most random one. But you can find value in any sport and which is best depends primarily on tipster or bettor.
如何寻找超值投注
既然我们已经知道了价值投注实例的概念,剩下的主要问题就是如何找到价值投注了。不幸的是,答案并不简单。要想在价值投注和整体投注方面取得成功,这是你必须做的主要功课。有些投注者最善于在早期线路中发现价值。越早发现博彩公司设定的新线路越好。第二个机会可能出现在赛前。有时,由于所有关于新伤病、天气和阵容变化的信息,博彩公司来不及做出反应。
价值投注的三大关键是:耐心、时机和分析。当你掌握了这三点,再加上适当的资金管理,你一定会发现超值投注的机会。