Value Bets are bets made with higher odds from bookmaker than the actual probability. These bets are generally understood as bets, that often might win less often than lose, but would have higher odds to compensate that in the long run. Value betting can be the single aspect that will change your betting from taking random bets to having long term betting success. It is also one of the first and main concepts you have to understand when you start betting or want to start winning in betting. Go ahead and find out what is expected value, how to count and find value and what sport is the best for value betting and value betting examples.
Table of Contents
- 1 Frequently asked questions
- 2 What is value betting in sports
- 3 Value betting example
- 4 How to find value bets
Frequently asked questions
Any value bet is a simple formula: probability% X odds > 100. As this result gets bigger, so does the value of the particular bet. You can never tell the outcome of any fair sport event for sure, but you can predict the outcome percentage. This is where we can find value.
Value betting are bets made with higher odds than the actual probability %. The idea of value bets is pretty simple and comes from the concept of Expected Value.
Value bets are generally understood as bets with higher odds. In reality, value can be found in various odds, sometimes even very low ones.
This is the homewok for any bettor to be successful with value betting and betting overall. Some bettors are best at spotting value in early bookmaker lines, so check them early. Follow the news about teams, players, weather etc. and learn then to react and when not to overreact. Always check the moving betting lines and why that is happening.
The real question is whether you could make money from betting without value betting. The main thing you should look for when it comes to betting, is value. You will never tell any winner for sure, even 1.01 odds will lose. Do not try to learn this the hard way. You absolutely have to understand what value betting is to make any money.
You win value bets by making a proper analysis and understanding what and why you are betting. It is also a must to understand that even the best bets might lose and the worst ones may win. With value betting our main goal is not to have a winning bet or winning day. Our goal is to have a winning week, winning month and winning year. This is the only real win.
As in any other sport, value bet in football can be found with a simple formula: probability% X odds > 100. Note that it is pretty hard (but not impossible) to find value on favourites when betting football. Pay additional attention to odds for draw, as betting on football draw is probably the outcome you can find value most consistently in.
The best sport to find value is the one you know the best. Basketball is the most consistant sport to bet, meanwhile baseball is proven to be the most random one. But you can find value in any sport and which is best depends primarily on tipster or bettor.
What is value betting in sports
Generally speaking, any value bet is probability% X odds > 100 As the result gets bigger, so gets the value of the particular bet. 45% to win probability bet with odds of 2.50 shows good value, even though we would win this bet less than half of the times. 45% x 2.50 = 112.5 and this means that in the long run, you can expect 12.5% profit from such bets. Any value above 5% after your own calculations can be considered viable for value betting, as we have to leave a few percentages as a margin of error.
We have to understand that value can be found in various odds, even very small ones. But value betting in general leads you to bet on bigger odds, knowing you will lose more bets, win less, but in the end you will have profit. We should also understand that every bookmakers’ intention is to set all the lines so that they would have no value at all. We have to make our calculations carefully and take many factors into account, otherwise value betting can turn into a simple guessing game.
One of the most important things in value betting is to know how to adapt your bankroll management to it and be psychologically prepared to lose very often. It will not be fun at times, but if you expect to be a winning bettor, it is not only fun and games what you are looking for.
Value betting example
In our fictional value betting examples selection Manchester City plays Aston Villa in Premier League football (soccer). According to bookmakers, Manchester City is a clear favourite and they are only offered @1.50 for the win.
In our example we know, that Manchester City team has already secured top spot in the league and will probably use second or even third team to play. Bookies are aware of that too, but the coefficient also reflects public bets made on Manchester City, based mostly on their name, past results, table positions and other criteria that in our opinion will make no good for their actual performance on the field.
On the other side we have the Aston Villa. A team which needs to win badly to stay in the Premier League and will use all the resources they have. Aston Villa plays on a home field that is very well known for their players. And let’s say weather conditions somehow favours them, too. These are simple reasons for taking Aston Villa, as in our case we think that the line favours stronger team too much. Odds are based on their past results, table positions and other reasons that will not be as important in this particular case.
Note that analysis before a real match would include much more outside and inside factors. Every bettor or tipster have different angles on what is important and what bookmaker may have missed when setting the line.
Value bets to take
Now that we have finished our short value betting examples analysis, our primary bet will be Aston Villa +0,5 @2.5. Based on our calculations after analysis, they have at least 45% to win or draw. We have made our homework here. The percentages we count will be the key to our tong term success. This is the only real advantage we have against the bookie when it comes to value betting.
We will also take Aston Villa to win the game with the odds of @6.00. Let’s say based on our calculations they have 20% to win the game. That is enough for us to have about 20% profit in the long run.
We bet on Aston Villa +0,5 @2.5 and Aston Villa win @6.00 – not “knowing” whether they surely will win or draw, but understanding that they have a better probability to win or draw than the odds suggest us.
How to find value bets
Now that we know the concept of value betting, the main question left is how to find them. Unfortunately, there is no simple answer. This is the main homewok you will have to do to be successful with value betting and betting overall. Some bettors are best at spotting value in early lines. The earlier you will spot the fresh line set by the bookmaker, the better. Second opportunity may occur just before the match. Sometimes with all the info about new injuries, weather and lineup changes, bookmakers are too late to react.
3 main keys to value betting are the following – Patience, Timing and Analysis. As you master all three together with proper bankroll management, you will surely spot value betting opportunities.
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