US Open 2026 Men’s Singles Predictions: Favorites and Dark Horses

Table of Contents

• Can Carlos Alcaraz Defend His US Open Title?  
• Can Alexander Zverev Win the US Open? 
• Can Ben Shelton Make Another Deep Run in New York? 
• Is Arthur Fils the Best US Open Dark Horse? 
• Can Novak Djokovic Win a 25th Grand Slam? 
• Other US Open Contenders
• Summary

Alcaraz has an outstanding recent record at the US Open. 

He won his first Grand Slam title in New York in 2022 and lifted the trophy again last season, beating Sinner in the final. His career record at the tournament stands at 24-3.

The first part of 2026 was equally impressive. Alcaraz defeated Djokovic in the Australian Open final to become the youngest man to complete the Career Grand Slam, taking his total to seven major titles.

His preparation is the obvious drawback. 

Alcaraz has not played competitive singles since April 14 because of a right wrist injury. 

He missed Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the main North American hard-court warm-up events before confirming his return for New York.

A fully fit Alcaraz deserves to lead the market, but 3.10 is a short price for a player returning from such a long layoff. 

Seven best-of-five matches provide little room to ease back into competition.

Zverev enters the US Open as a Grand Slam champion for the first time.

The German finally won his first major at Roland Garros in June, beating Flavio Cobolli in five sets, before reaching the Wimbledon final a month later. Sinner stopped him there, but back-to-back major finals represent the strongest Grand Slam run of Zverev’s career.

His record in New York is another positive. 

Zverev reached the final in 2020, made the semifinals in 2021 and returned to the quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024. Fifteen of his 25 career titles have also come on hard courts.

His results since Wimbledon have been less convincing. 

Tallon Griekspoor knocked him out in his opening match at the Canadian Open, while Tommy Paul saved a match point before beating him 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 in Cincinnati.

Those results add some uncertainty, but Zverev still brings the strongest overall profile at the current prices. 

As the top seed and a finalist at the last two majors, he has already shown enough this season to justify his position near the top of the market. 

At 4.25, Zverev is the preferred outright selection.

Shelton arrives in New York with excellent hard-court form.

The 23-year-old successfully defended his Canadian Open title earlier this month, beating Brandon Nakashima 6-3, 7-6 in the final. He completed the tournament without dropping a set, becoming the first player to achieve that at the event since Djokovic in 2016.

Shelton has already shown that his game works in New York. 

He reached the US Open semifinals in 2023, with his left-handed serve proving particularly effective in the quicker conditions at Flushing Meadows. 

There were also encouraging signs in Canada beyond the serve. Shelton has spoken about improvements in both his serving and returning, and the Montreal run showed a more complete hard-court game than the one seen during some of his earlier Grand Slam exits.

Maintaining that level through seven best-of-five matches is a much tougher test. 

His 2026 major season has been uneven despite reaching the Australian Open quarterfinals.

At 10.00, the price compensates for that inconsistency. Recent form and previous success in New York make Shelton the strongest bigger-priced alternative to the leading favorites.

Fils carries more risk, but few players enter the tournament with better immediate form.

The Frenchman won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati on Sunday, defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 1-6, 6-0 in the final. 

He beat three Top-20 opponents during the tournament and climbed to a career-high No. 11 in the ATP rankings.

Cincinnati was not an isolated result. 

Fils had already reached Masters 1000 semifinals in Miami and Madrid during a season in which he has compiled a 32-10 record despite missing significant time through injury.

His serve has been one of the biggest areas of progress. 

Fils is winning a higher percentage of points behind his second serve this season, giving opponents fewer opportunities to attack a part of his game that had previously been vulnerable.

His lack of a deep Grand Slam run and the short turnaround from Cincinnati are the two main concerns. 

At 15.00, however, the price is big enough to justify taking a chance on a 22-year-old arriving after the biggest title of his career. 

Djokovic remains a serious contender even at 39.

The Serbian has won the US Open four times and reached 10 finals in New York. 

A fifth US Open title would give him 25 Grand Slam singles trophies, moving him clear of Margaret Court’s mark of 24. 

His 2026 major results show that the level is still there. 

Djokovic reached the Australian Open final and the Wimbledon semifinals.

Physical durability is the bigger issue. 

Heat and humidity caused visible problems during his Cincinnati defeat, and similar conditions can make New York particularly demanding over two weeks.

At 8.50, Djokovic cannot be dismissed, but the price is not large enough to ignore the physical risk. Shelton offers a slightly bigger number with considerably stronger recent hard-court form.

Taylor Fritz remains one of the obvious American threats after reaching the US Open final in 2024. 

His serve remains a major weapon, although his recent results have been less convincing than Shelton’s.

Daniil Medvedev is another player with proven New York credentials. 

The 2021 champion has built much of his career around hard-court success, but an inconsistent 2026 season makes him difficult to back ahead of the shorter-priced contenders.

Rafael Jodar is the more intriguing long-term name. 

The 19-year-old Spaniard reached his first Masters 1000 semifinal in Montreal after beating Fils in the quarterfinals and has climbed rapidly during his breakout season. 

Winning a Grand Slam would still represent a major step, but his progress makes him one of the players worth watching in New York.

The 2026 US Open men’s singles draw looks wide open after Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal and Carlos Alcaraz’s long injury break. Zverev enters as top seed, Djokovic chases a 25th Grand Slam, while Shelton and Fils bring strong hard-court form, so bettors may want to compare outright odds, live markets and crypto options at the best betting sites before the tournament begins.