Virtus Bologna - BC Zalgiris Kaunas

Virtus have been one of the better stories of the early EuroLeague season and most of the good work has come in Bologna. They opened by beating Olympiacos at home by two points, added a home win over Baskonia, and picked up road wins at Bayern and Paris along the way. The loss at Hapoel Tel Aviv snapped a four game run, but it came in one of the hardest buildings in the competition, so it does not change much about how they look on their own floor. Zalgiris are the opposite case. They sit at two wins and four losses, and the record flatters them a little because the defeats have been heavy. They were beaten by nineteen at Fenerbahce and by fifteen at Anadolu Efes inside a few days, and the only away result worth anything is the win at Barcelona. Travelling to a full Bologna arena against a side that defends well at home is not the spot to fix that. A price just under even money on the home team reads fair rather than generous, which is why the money line is the honest way to back it instead of reaching for a handicap. Virtus do not need to win big here. They just need to hold serve at home, and they have done that against better opposition than this.