FAS - Inter Santa Tecla

I see a clear discrepancy in the market for both teams to score (BTTS: Yes). Influenced by Inter Santa Tecla’s solid overall defensive statistics (0.95 goals conceded per game), bookmakers are maintaining a conservative line on goals, pushing the odds for BTTS: Yes to around 1.92, while the 1X2 market artificially favors a straight FAS win at 1.80. However, recent form and head-to-head history contradict this caution. CD FAS is going through a period of defensive vulnerability (no clean sheets in 4 of its last 5 matches, a 2-2 draw against last-place Fuerte San Francisco) while still boasting one of the best offenses in the country. Furthermore, 4 of the last 5 head-to-head matches between these two teams have resulted in both teams scoring (2-2, 2-2, 3-1, 3-1). My probabilistic analyses place their major quadrants on drawn scores (1-1, 2-1, 2-2), yielding a net Edge of +3.59% on over 2.5.