Italy - Serbia

Serbia bring the best player on the floor and probably two of the best three. Nikola Jokic filled the sheet against Iceland with 6 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists, Nikola Jovic led the scoring with 21, and the whole thing was decided long before the fourth quarter in a 102-73 win. Jokic is confirmed for the second game of the window, so that version of Serbia is the one travelling to Italy. Italy have had a strange few days. They went to Tuzla sitting at 5-1, ran straight into Jusuf Nurkic, and lost 78-76 even with Simone Fontecchio and Nico Mannion both reaching 14 points. Nicolo Melli and Darius Thompson added nine apiece and it still was not enough inside. Home advantage will tighten this up, and Italy are a well drilled group who defend the arc properly, but the frontcourt problem Nurkic exposed does not get any easier when the man in the middle is Jokic. Three and a half points is a modest number for the gap in quality. Laying six or seven on the road in a hostile building is usually where these bets go wrong, so the shorter line at a fair price is the cleaner way in. A Serbian win by four or more should be the base case.