Turkiye - Italy

Both of these teams lost their opening match, so Bursa hosts a night where the group table already feels urgent. Turkey went down 1-0 in Paris and Italy were beaten 2-0 at home by Belgium. That combination usually tightens a game rather than opening it up, because the first side to concede is close to running out of road. What really shapes this one is who is missing. Turkey are without Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz, the two players the attack normally runs through, and goalkeeper Ugurkan Cakir is suspended after being sent off against France. Vincenzo Montella therefore has to rebuild his spine and find goals from somewhere else. Italy travel without Federico Dimarco, Bryan Cristante and Manuel Locatelli, although Roberto Mancini does welcome back Alessandro Bastoni from suspension, which should firm up a defence that Belgium picked apart far too easily. So you have two sides short of creative passers, two coaches who cannot afford a second defeat, and a back line on each side that has good reason to sit deep and stay compact early. Two goals is enough for this market and it only breaks if the game cracks open late. The shape of the evening points to something cagey and low scoring rather than an open exchange.