Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz

ATP US Open - QF

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Pick

Over 3.5

Odds

@1.58

Stake

6/10

Published 2026-09-07 16:14:34

Starts 2026-09-08 18:00:00

Ben Shelton - Carlos Alcaraz Betting Tip:

Three previous meetings, three Alcaraz wins, and an eighteen match Grand Slam winning streak going into this one. The defending champion is the rightful favourite and there is no argument there. The angle is not about who wins, it is about how long it takes. Remember that the men play best of five here, so this line needs the match to run past a straight sets finish rather than needing an upset. Two things point that way. Alcaraz picked the US Open as his first tournament back after four months out with injury, and match sharpness over five sets late in a Slam is the last thing to return. Shelton, meanwhile, is playing the best tennis of his life. He took Montreal without dropping a set, then dismantled Tsitsipas 6-2 6-3 6-4 in the fourth round with a dozen aces and not a single break point faced. That serve alone is enough to hold a set hostage on a fast hard court. Their most recent match, at Roland Garros, already stretched to four sets with Shelton taking one, and this surface suits him far better than clay did. A tidy 3-0 for the Spaniard is the outcome that feels least likely of all.

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