Spain - Germany

Berlin opens its World Cup with the host nation walking straight into the toughest possible draw. Spain arrive as the reigning EuroBasket silver medallists with a squad that has been together for years, and depth is where this one gets decided. Germany are here as hosts rather than through qualification, and the roster news has not been kind to them. Satou Sabally, comfortably their best player and one of the leading frontcourt names in the WNBA, has withdrawn while she recovers from a concussion, and Nyara Sabally only cleared a calf scan in the build up. Losing that kind of production from a side that was already short on international level scoring is a serious problem against a defence as organised as the Spanish one. Home crowds matter in an opener and Germany will come out swinging in front of a full arena, so the first quarter could easily stay tight. Over forty minutes though the gap in rotation quality tends to show, and Spain have a habit of grinding these group games out by double figures once their bench gets on the floor. Seven points is a fair line rather than a generous one, but with the German frontcourt this thin it looks like the right side.