Breakdown: RB Leipzig's structural dominance fundamentally relies on their aggressive pressing scheme and elite physical capacity to win loose balls, currently leading the entire Bundesliga with 3,278 total duels won this season. Leverkusen's build-up phase will be severely compromised by the suspension of their central metronome Aleix Garcia, who typically dictates their passing efficiency and progression. Without Garcia available to orchestrate under pressure and lacking their primary goalkeeper, Leipzig's high-intensity Passes Allowed Per Defensive Action (PPDA) trap will easily suffocate Leverkusen's defense and force them into predictable, rushed distributions. When Leverkusen inevitably turns the ball over in the middle third due to this sustained pressure, Leipzig's quick vertical transitions will ruthlessly expose a fragile Leverkusen defensive line that has proven entirely incapable of stopping counter-attacks in recent weeks. This extreme tactical mismatch guarantees that Leipzig will continuously generate high-value Expected Threat (xT) opportunities against a disjointed defensive block over the full 90 minutes, easily establishing the required territorial dominance to cover the handicap.