Portugal - Wales

Portugal are the defending champions of this competition and they open the defence at home in Lisbon, so a short price was always coming. Jorge Jesus has the squad you would expect, with Ronaldo called up again and the familiar spine of Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Vitinha and Rafael Leao around him. There is no argument about who the better team is. The argument is about the margin. Wales are in League A on merit after winning promotion in the last cycle, and the Bellamy side is built to make exactly this kind of night uncomfortable: Ampadu and Rodon holding the middle, Brennan Johnson and Daniel James waiting to run at space on the break. Teams set up that way lose these matches by a goal far more often than they get taken apart. There is a second wrinkle. This is a first competitive outing for Portugal under a new coach, and first nights tend to be about control and patience rather than a rout, especially against opponents who sit in. Backing Wales to stay within two covers the 1-0 and the 2-0, the two likeliest Portugal wins on the board. Anything wider and it was probably never going to be close.