This is a first round that does not look like a first round. Rublev is seeded and turned up in New York off the back of a run to the Barcelona final, so on paper he is the obvious pick. Cilic is the problem. He has a US Open title on his record, the serve still travels on this surface, and he has already beaten Rublev at a major, taking their Roland Garros quarter final in a deciding tie break back in 2022. The head to head sits at four wins to three in favour of Rublev, which tells you how little has separated them whenever they meet. Rublev is also a player whose Grand Slam results swing hard from one extreme to the other, and a big hitting former champion is not the opening draw he wanted. Backing Cilic outright is a stretch at this stage of his career over five sets. Asking the match to run past three and a half sets is the cleaner way in. It only needs one of these two to take a set off the other, and every part of the matchup argues for that: two heavy servers, a tight historical record, and a veteran who has shown before that he can hurt this opponent on the big stages.