Both of these men had comfortable opening rounds, which is why the interesting question is not who wins but how long it takes. Fritz needed a little over two hours to see off Darwin Blanch 6-3 6-2 6-4, never in trouble, serve doing the heavy lifting. Bellucci was even more brutal in his own match, beating Zsombor Piros 6-4 6-2 6-0 and getting sharper as it went. So the Italian arrives with confidence, and as a left hander he brings the awkward angles that can unsettle a rhythm player. The problem is that Fritz is not really a rhythm player on this surface. He is a New York regular, a former finalist here, and his serve travels better on these courts than almost anyone else in the draw outside the very top names. That combination is a nightmare for someone who needs long rallies to build a foothold. Bellucci at plus two and a half sets is the same number from the other side and it is priced almost identically, which tells you the market sees a tight three setter as the base case. The lean here is that Fritz keeps it to three, because getting a set off him at this venue usually requires either a serving masterclass or a Fritz dip, and neither showed up on Tuesday. Home crowd, big serve, straight sets.