Germany have shown a tendency to concede early and then crank up the pressure in the second half—against Italy they fell behind before coming back to score three, and their knockout pedigree means they rarely stay behind after the break. Portugal, on the other hand, often strike first in high-tempo matches—recall how they raced into a 2-0 lead over Denmark before sitting back—yet they’ve faded late in big games, conceding in the final 30 minutes on several occasions. With Portugal likely to press hard from kickoff and grab an early goal, Germany’s superior fitness and tactical adjustments should see them overturn the deficit after halftime.

Our pick is HT/FT – 2/1 at odds of 23.00

Germany have been in red-hot form up front, hitting seven against Bosnia and three more versus Italy, while Portugal have tormented defenses with five goals in recent wins and rarely failed to score themselves. Their head-to-head meetings have been goal fests—four of the last six saw 3+ goals. In a semi-final where both sides press high and attack relentlessly, it’s hard to see this ending with fewer than three goals.

Our pick is Over 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.62

Germany have been prolific in attack but have shown vulnerability at the back, conceding in four of their last five Nations League fixtures, including a 3-3 draw with Italy. Portugal, similarly, have found the net regularly yet shipped goals in most recent outings, leaking twice in a 5-2 win over Denmark and drawing 1-1 away to Croatia. Their head-to-head history supports goals at both ends—five of their last six meetings saw both sides score. In a high-stakes semi-final where neither looks set to sit back, both defenses are likely to be breached.

Our pick is BTTS – Yes at odds of 1.57.