Thunder vs Spurs Game 6 Prediction NBA Western Conference Finals – May 29

Oklahoma City won Game 5 by 13 points and now lead this series 3-2 heading into Thursday night in San Antonio. The Thunder shot 43.8 percent from three and scored 127 points in that win, leaving the Spurs with their backs against the wall at the Frost Bank Center.

Teams that win Game 5 when a series is tied 2-2 go on to win 82 percent of the time, so history is on OKC’s side. San Antonio are facing elimination for the first time in the Wembanyama era, but they have surprised the whole NBA this season and a loud home crowd could help them force a Game 7.

🏀 Thunder vs Spurs Game 6 Prediction NBA: Thunder +5 @1.73

Wembanyama had a night to forget in Game 5, shooting just 4 for 15 and taking most of his shots from far outside instead of going at the basket.

Coach Mitch Johnson said after the game that Wemby simply needs to take more shots, and the numbers back a big response since he has averaged 28 points the game after each of his last 21 quiet nights.

The bench is another problem, with Luke Kornet having a combined plus minus of minus 52 across five games and playing only 8 minutes in Game 5, putting even more pressure on Wemby to carry the load.

Rookie Dylan Harper scored 24 points in Game 1 but has not been the same since picking up an adductor injury in Game 2, and how much San Antonio can get from him tonight is a big question mark.

OKC come into this game without Ajay Mitchell and with Jalen Williams a doubt due to a hamstring problem, but they have dealt with injuries all postseason and kept winning.

Isaiah Hartenstein has been huge in this series, putting up 26, 17, 22 and 31 combined points, rebounds and assists across the last four games and backing that up with 12 points, 15 rebounds and 4 assists in Game 5.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has hurt San Antonio in every single game and with both teams tired after 10 meetings this season, OKC’s experience as defending champions gives them an edge when the game is on the line.

The Thunder have won three games in this series by nine or more points, which shows they know how to take control and close out when the Spurs start making errors.

The Thunder are getting 5 points on the road against a team with a struggling bench, a star player who needs to bounce back and a rookie who may have to step up in the big moments.

San Antonio shot under 30 percent from three in Game 5 and barely got anything from Wembanyama, and with Kornet set to play even fewer minutes the Spurs have very little room for error.

OKC rank second in net rating this postseason and second in shooting efficiency, making them one of the best teams left in the playoffs.

The spread moved two full points in San Antonio’s favor after one bad game, which is an overreaction that creates clear value on the Thunder side, and at 1.73 backing OKC to stay within 5 points is the best NBA bet on the board Thursday night.

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