Kyrian Jacquet - Andrey Rublev

Rublev is the better player here by a wide margin and he is two wins from a second title of the year, but the road he took to this semifinal is worth a closer look. Hugo Gaston had him three points from the exit late in the second set before the second seed scrambled through a tie break and then ran away with the decider. That is not a one off either. A pattern has been forming all season where Rublev drops a set to opponents he ought to handle inside seventy minutes, and the drop usually comes when the level dips rather than when the opponent raises it. Jacquet arrives in the first tour level semifinal of his career after knocking out the sixth seed, and a player in that mood tends to swing freely rather than freeze. The detail that matters most for this market is that he saved every break point he faced in the quarters. A man serving that well does not need to play the match of his life to take a set off anybody. This is best of three, so a set and a half start only asks the Frenchman to win one set or the match itself. Given how regularly the favourite has let a set slip this year, that is generous insurance at the price.