Indianapolis Colts - New York Giants
Lost
Ended: 2018/12/23
Pick:Saquon Barkley: Over (36.5) Receiving Yards
Publish date: 2018-12-23 09:40:58 Event date: 2018-12-23 20:00:00 Stake: 3/10
Saquon Barkley: Over (36.5) Receiving Yards @ 1.91
3/10
USA. NFL
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Pick: Saquon Barkley: Over (36.5) Receiving Yards
Odds: 1.91
Stake: 3/10

Odell Beckham Jr. is OUT and Saquon will probably see more targets here.
Game script should be negative (I expect Indianapolis to dominate this game), so the Giants offense should lean on a pass heavy approach at some point. 
Saquon has covered this line 7 times this season (50%). However, if we pay attention only to his team's losses, he covered the line 7 times out of 9 (77%). That's because game flow affects the play calling and Giants had to air it out to play catch up almost every game.
I also searched the Colts' defense performances against opposing running backs this season, and the results I found favour this bet:
Colts allow the second most targets to opposing running backs this season (127). Only the Falcons allow more.
Colts allow the second most receptions to opposing running backs this season (100).
Cols allow the sixth most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season (758).
This means that Saquon Barkley will benefit from the negative game script, Beckham's absence and Colts' inefficiency against receiving halfbacks.

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Tipsters Top: #825
Profit: -9.69
Yield: -23.6%
Total Tips: 9
Followers:1