How to Identify Value Bets in Less Publicised Sports Events

One of the hidden gems of sports betting is identifying value bets, especially in less publicised sporting events from across the globe. 

This page will take a closer look at the concept of value betting, which is often overlooked by sports bettors and is more about placing strategic, well-informed bets rather than just betting on the odds-on favourites for any given event. 

It has been said that value bets, when successful, are a long-term strategy that involves placing numerous bets over a prolonged period of time. 

One other thing to be clear about is that many of the value bets you place are not likely to see a return on your investment. Still, the ones that are successful will potentially see more of a return in the long run and will help recoup some of your losses because the returns on any winnings value bets that you place will typically have higher returns (i.e., pay out more). 

Still confused? Don’t be. 

Let’s dive straight in to discover how to identify good value bets by looking at some of the latest odds for sports betting on 10bet.co.za – South Africa’s number one online sports betting and casino website.

What exactly is a value bet?

In sports betting, the term value bet, which offers positive EV (expected value), explains a situation where the implied probability rate (IPR) of any given bet type is lower than the actual likelihood of that event happening. In other words, the outcome of something happening should be greater than what the sportsbooks’ odds reflect. 

Let’s take a quick look at an example of an upcoming AFCON group qualifier football match between Zimbabwe and Kenya. 

Zimbabwe are currently the least favourite to win this match. They are priced, on average, at around 17/10 in the fractional odds format, which is 2.7 in decimal odds and +170 in American/moneyline odds to win the match outright. These odds mean that Zimbabwe has a 37.00% implied probability rate of winning. 

Therefore, if you were to place an R50 bet on Zimbabwe to win, and they end up beating Kenya in this fixture, your total returns would be R135.00 (which includes your initial R50 stake returned, and an R85.00 profit). 

In comparison, the odds-on favourites going into this match, Kenya, are currently priced at around 8/5 (which is 2.60 in decimal odds and +160 in American/moneyline odds), with a slightly more favourable 38.50% IPR.  

Therefore, if you were to place a R50 bet on Kenya to win, and they end up beating Zimbabwe, your total returns would be R130.00 (which includes your initial R50 stake returned, and an R80.00 profit).

Zimbabwe recently climbed up seven places on the official FIFA World Rankings and have won their last two matches. In comparison, Kenya drew their last match, and lost their previous two. 

This means that Zimbabwe, although they aren’t the bookies’ favourites, can be identified as an excellent value bet and have a good chance of winning this match. 

How to identify worthwhile value bets

The key to identifying value bets is to closely examine the odds and then gather as much information and relevant statistics as possible about the two teams to see which team will most likely come out on top. Don’t forget that the odds-on favourites don’t always win. 

Sometimes, the outsiders/underdogs with less favourable odds can [and often do] upset the odds and win. Identifying sporting events like this, where the least favourite has a good chance of winning, is a knack that requires skill and research. 

Some of the other important factors in a typical football match that can also help you place more successful value bets that you should always try to find out include the following:

• The importance of the match
• Current league standing for both teams
• Current form of at least the past three to five matches
• Historical results between those two teams
• Goal-scoring stats and assist stats
• Injury news
• Recent signings
• Playing styles/strategies
• Latest team news/gossip
• Starting 11 line up

It even helps in some cases to find out what the weather will be like on the day of the game. For example, some teams/individuals perform better than others in certain weather conditions. 

Final thoughts

Although sports betting is not an exact science, today’s most trusted online sportsbooks, like 10bet, use various AI-powered tools and applications, such as machine learning and big data gathering and analysis, to offer the most accurate and highly competitive odds, so there has never been a better time than now to be a sports bettor. 

This same trusted site (10Bet) also now offers in-play betting services, otherwise known as live betting, that allow sports bettors to place far more strategic and well-informed bets. 

The important thing to remember when value betting is that it is more of a long-term strategy, not a short-term strategy. The other thing to remember is that no bets are ever guaranteed to win. 

Always gamble responsibly by conducting plenty of your own research, and don’t forget to set a reasonable spending budget before depositing on your favourite site to place sports bets.