The Balance of Luck and Skills in Top Sports. Choose on What do You Bet

What sport do you like to bet on? Is it football? Is it basketball? Hockey, maybe? Tennis or any other? Well, we have bad news for some of you. Sports can be differentiated by their predictability. This is the reason you have to know where your favorite sport ranks in Balance of Luck and Skills in top sports compared to the others. What are the luckiest sports? From almost purely skill based sports to most luck based sports.

The Balance of Luck and Skills in Top Sports

According to Vox, ice hockey is the closest to randomness. Michael Mauboussin, who is the author of the book called The Success Equation, found out how skills correlate with the results of the regular season of top sports in the USA.

Where, as we all know, lottery tickets are relying purely on luck, sports differ by the game flow, the number of players and other conditions. His findings showed that ice hockey (based on NHL results) is the most luck dominated sport compared to American football, European football (soccer), baseball, basketball and chess.

Calculations that were made do not show how skilled players are. Instead, it shows how sport is capable of measuring players’ skills in its context. One of the key thesis is the sample size. Leagues, where teams play less games are more reliant on luck than leagues in which teams play hundreds of games throughout the season. Other important size is the number of chances team has to score in the game.

Different Sports Ranks in Predictability [Balance of Luck and Skills]

To give a clear picture, we compared how much luck influences the outcomes in different sports:

Ice Hockey 🏒: Closest to randomness and one of the most luck based sports. The low-scoring nature means that a single lucky bounce, deflection, or referee decision can completely change the outcome of a game. Upsets happen frequently, making it one of the hardest sports to bet on consistently.
Baseball ⚾: Somewhat random. While teams play many games in a season, individual games can be very unpredictable due to factors like pitcher performance, weather, and game-specific strategies. However, over a full season, the best teams still tend to rise to the top.
American Football 🏈: Moderate randomness level. The sport has a high level of strategy, but luck plays a role due to the relatively small number of games in a season and the potential impact of single plays, referee calls, and injuries. Betting on the NFL, for example, requires a deep understanding of team matchups and player health.
Football (Soccer) ⚽: Moderately skill based, but still contains randomness. Low scoring matches mean that a single mistake or moment of brilliance can decide a game. While strong teams tend to perform well over a full season, upsets are common in individual matches, making betting a bit more tricky, even in strongest leagues like German Bundesliga.
Basketball 🏀: The least random major sport. The high number of scoring opportunities in each game means that superior teams almost always prevail in the long run. Luck plays a role in certain moments, but over a season, skill dominates. This makes basketball one of the most predictable sports for betting when using proper analysis.
Tennis 🎾: Extremely skill based. Since it’s an individual sport, better players almost always win, making it one of the most predictable sports to bet on. However, factors like fatigue, playing surface, and head-to-head records can still create surprises.

Care to learn more about balance of luck and skills in sports? Watch this Vox video below. And do not forget – we at StakeHunters.com have various picks to satisfy your needs. So pick wisely and have a happy hunt!