Italy - Serbia Basketball prediction

Spread: Italy +8.5

In the fourth quarterfinal of the 2017 European Basketball Championship, the top-seeded in Group D Serbia (5-1) are facing the third-seeded in Group B Italy (4-2). The game takes place at the Sinan Erdem Arena of Istanbul, Turkey.
Italy finished the group phase with a 3-2 record and were placed third in Group B. They are coming from back-to-back wins and in their last game they eliminated Finland in the first round of the playoffs with a 57-70 score. They are led in scoring by Marco Belinelli with 17.8 ppg, adding a team high 2.2 steals per game. He is followed by Datome with 15 ppg and 5.7 rebounds, while Filloy adds 10.3 ppg and 2.3 assists per game.
Serbia finished the group phase of the competition with a 4-1 record and were placed first in Group D. They have four consecutive wins and in their last game they eliminated Hungary in the first round of the playoffs with an 86-78 score. They are led in scoring by Bogdan Bogdanovic with 19.3 ppg, adding 3.2 rpg and 5.3 assists per game. He is followed by Boban Marjanovic with 13 ppg and 4.5 rebounds, while Milan Macvan adds 10.3 ppg and 3.8 rebounds.
This will be the 6th meeting between those two squads in the history of the competition, with Serbia having won all five previous games going back to 1993. In their latest matchup on 2015, Serbia won with a 101-82 score. Serbia are better offensively, scoring 81 ppg to Italy’s third-worse of 69.3, while Italy are better defensively, allowing 64.4 ppg to Serbia’s 70.6. Serbia have a better 2-point percentage, shooting with 53% to Italy’s 46.3%, and a better free throw percentage, shooting with 75.2% to Italy’s 67.8%, while Italy have a better 3-point percentage, shooting with 39.2% to Serbia’s 34.9%. Serbia are better in rebounding, grabbing 38.8 to Italy’s 32.7, and assists made, with 21.7 to Italy’s 15.2, while both teams commit almost the same number of turnovers (11.2 and 11.5). Italy have been more unpredictable in this tournament while Serbia have been more stable. I expect Italy will win this match , or it will be very close both teams.