On 23 May 2025, Fenerbahçe and Panathinaikos will meet in Abu Dhabi for a do-or-die EuroLeague Final Four semi-final. Panathinaikos push the tempo and hunt early threes, while Fenerbahçe slow things down behind a defence that squeezes every possession. Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos Prediction with two elite coaches on the sideline and a ticket to the championship game on the line, where every loose ball and timeout will be important.
Table of Contents
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos Prediction and Betting Tips – EuroLeague Final Four 2025
Match Overview
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Stage | Semi-final, EuroLeague Final Four 2025 |
| Date & Tip-off | Friday 23 May 2025 – 19:00 GST (Abu Dhabi) 17:00 CEST / 18:00 EEST |
| Venue | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi |
| Live in Europe | EuroLeagueTV (OTT) • DAZN (DACH, Spain, Italy) • Eurosport Player (UK) • Novasports (GR) • Saran (TR) |
Fenerbahçe counter with a top-three defence and a relentless rebounding group that can stifle the Greek club’s transition attack.
The availability of centre Mathias Lessort is still in doubt; without him, Panathinaikos would surrender both rim protection and second-chance control.
Tactically, Ergin Ataman’s up-tempo playbook will probe Šarūnas Jasikevičius’ measured half-court approach, keeping the score tight well into the closing minutes.
Balancing form, match-ups and possible absences, Fenerbahçe appear marginally better positioned to claim a low-scoring game, something in the region of 80 – 76.
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos Prediction Betting Tips
| Market | Tip | Decimal Odds | Confidence | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Winner | Fenerbahçe | 2.23 | ★★★☆☆ | Underdog price + extra rest + H2H dominance; edge huge if Lessort absent. |
| Handicap | Fenerbahçe +3 | 1.85 | ★★★★☆ | Four ATS wins in last five vs PAO; semi-finals historically tight (avg margin 4.1 pts since 2015). |
| Total Points | Under 161 | 1.91 | ★★★★☆ | Final Four unders 15-5 last five years; FEN will try to slow down the tempo. |
| Player Prop | Kendrick Nunn Over 18.5 pts | 1.85 | ★★★☆☆ | Averages 20.4 ppg; FEN allow 18.3 ppg to primary ball-handlers. |
| Longshot | MVP of game: Nigel Hayes-Davis | 9.00 | ★☆☆☆☆ | Two-way work + mismatch vs PAO’s stretched fours. Here you can find more Euroleague Betting Tips. |
Current Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos Prediction Odds (Best Price 18 May 2025)
| Outcome | Best Odds* | Sportsbook | Implied % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos win | 1.71 | 22Bet | 58.5 % |
| Fenerbahçe win | 2.23 | Velobet | 44.8 % |
| Handicap | PAO –2.5 @ 1.92 | Unibet | – |
| Total Points | Under 160.5 @ 1.95 | MyStake | – |
Team Form & Euroleague Road to Abu Dhabi
Fenerbahçe Beko Istanbul
-
23-11 regular season, swept Paris 3-0 in the quarters for extra rest. [Euroleague Basketball]
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#3 defence in points allowed (81.1 ppg).
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Coach Šarūnas Jasikevičius admits rhythm concerns after a domestic defeat: “We cannot be ready for the Final Four playing like this.”
Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens
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22-12 regular season; survived a five-game thriller v Efes.
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League-best Offensive Rating 123.1.
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Ataman has won six straight meetings with Jasikevičius-coached sides. Despite this, Jasikevičius is arguably the better coach of these two.
Fenerbahce vs Panathinaikos Prediction Injury Report
| Team | Status | Latest Update | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAO | C Mathias Lessort – doubtful (knee) | “I don’t have an answer right now” – 16 May 2025 [Eurohoops] | Elite rim protection. |
| G Kendrick Nunn – probable (foot soreness) | Cleared to train 14 May 25 [RotoWire] | 20.4 ppg top scorer; vital for P&R creation. | |
| FEN | F Nicolo Melli – available (foot) | Returned 18 May 25, 16 min in domestic game | Spacing big; stabilises second unit. |
| C Şertaç Şanlı – fit (concussion) | Back in mix since 6 May 25 | Size to battle PAO’s front-court. |
Tactical Match-ups
Pick-and-Roll Chess
PAO’s Sloukas + Nunn duo spam high P&R. Fener’s drop-heavy coverage relies on Şanlı’s positioning; if Lessort plays, PAO can punish switches with lobs. Without him, Ataman may downsize, forcing Melli into space and opening weak-side triples for Juancho Hernangómez.
Wing Physicality & Close-outs
Nigel Hayes-Davis and Marko Guduric must chase Cedi Osman around stagger screens. FEN rank second in close-out efficiency; sustaining that for 40 minutes will be the key.
Second-Unit Scoring
Grant + Papapetrou supply 18.7 bench ppg for PAO; FEN counters with Wilbekin microwave bursts (47 % 3PT in last ten). Whichever bench wins the mid-second-quarter minutes often controls momentum in one-off semis.
Glass Battle
Fenerbahçe grab 32 % of their own misses (2nd in EL). If Lessort sits or is limited, PAO’s defensive rebounding rate (currently 68 %, 15th) becomes a red flag.
Frequently Asked Questions
When and where is the game?
– Friday 23 May 2025, 17:00 CEST (18:00 EEST) at Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. [Wikipedia]
Who are the favourites?
– Panathinaikos at 1.71; Fenerbahçe at 2.23 (best current odds).
Is Mathias Lessort playing?
– Official status is doubtful; player says “no answer right now”.
Which bet offers the best value?
– Fenerbahçe to win at anything above 2.15 provides a positive expected value.
Where can I stream it in Germany/Italy/Spain?
– DAZN holds non-exclusive rights; alternatively EuroLeagueTV’s Game Pass is geo-open in the EU.
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